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    環保趨嚴壓縮供給,草甘膦步入景氣通道
    發布時間:2013-08-19     作者:山東先達農化股份有限公司
        糧價長期趨勢上漲,農藥需求相對剛性。受限于耕地面積縮減、異常氣候和自然災害頻發等因素,糧食供給增長有限,全球糧食庫存/消費比不斷創歷史新低,而世界每年人口新增近8000千萬及“人車爭糧”等問題使糧食供需矛盾加劇,糧價震蕩上行處歷史高位,糧價長期趨勢上行帶動農藥行業需求相對剛性。2012年,全球農作物保護產品銷售額為495億美元,行業內專家預計2012至2018年復合年增長率為5.5%,除草劑增長速度和交易量在未來六年內創歷史最高,除草劑預期年增長率為6.1%。
     
        轉基因作物推廣勢不可擋,草甘膦2013~2015年需求增速預計為8~10%。為應對糧食問題,全球各國逐漸接受轉基因作物,轉基因作物種植面積16年時間增長近100倍,其全球化推廣呈勢不可擋態勢。目前美國、巴西轉基因作物種植面積占比已分別到40%和62%,全球轉基因作物占比僅為9.8%,仍有較大提升空間。轉基因作物的增長帶動草甘膦需求增長遠快于農藥行業增速,未來隨著發展中國家轉基因作物種植面積的增長和玉米、油菜等轉基因化率的提升,2013~2015年全球草甘膦需求增速至少保持在8~10%。
     
        中國環保政策趨嚴導致草甘膦供給壓縮,價格步入中長期上揚通道。草甘膦的供應主要集中在中國和孟山都。2012年,中國草甘膦產能約65萬噸,占全球產能的70%,但中國草甘膦70%的產能面臨工藝落后、產品含雜質高、副產物和“三廢”多等環保壓力大的問題;隨著環保部發布57號文《關于開展草甘膦(雙甘膦)生產企業環保核查工作的通知》,部分環境污染嚴重地區企業開工受限,將有效壓縮中小企業的產能,同時剩存企業生產成本也將大幅提升。據行業數據測算,1~2萬噸/年草甘膦產能,用在“三廢”治理上需相應投入0.5~1億元,對中小企業存在較大的資金壓力,未來中國草甘膦生產企業供給將更為集中,供給格局得到顯著改善,草甘膦價格步入中長期景氣通道。
     
        維持草甘膦龍頭揚農化工“強烈推薦”評級,建議超配草甘膦子行業。環保趨嚴致草甘膦中長期價格上揚,將不斷增厚公司業績,草甘膦價格每上揚1000元/噸,增厚江山股份0.21元/股、揚農化工0.13元/股、新安股份0.07元/股,沙隆達A0.04元/股。揚農化工草甘膦產能3萬噸/年,全部采用IDA生產工藝,IDA清潔工藝生產線在愈嚴環保政策下競爭優勢愈明顯,公司除享受草甘膦價格上揚帶來業績彈性外,如東新項目2014年和2015年陸續釋放將保障業績持續增長,我們預計公司2013~2015年EPS分別為2.18元、2.65元和3.16元,維持“強烈推薦”評級。同時建議關注沙隆達A、江山股份、新安股份等草甘膦個股投資機會,建議超配草甘膦子行業。(來源:中國農資網)

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